Will South Sudan
make a November deadline to form a unity government?
South
Sudan’s warring parties are less than two months away from forming a unity
government, but meetings last week failed to move the needle on a 2018 peace deal long-delayed by disputes. The question now:
what will happen in November?
The war-torn nation has been slow to emerge
from five years of fighting that has killed almost 400,000 people and displaced
millions. Some 180,000 people remain in six UN-protected sites across the
country; many are still too afraid to return home.
A
unity government was supposed to be formed in May, but a deadlock on several
key issues forced a six-month extension. Since then, little has changed. Last
week’s talks in Juba between President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek
Machar were the first time the rivals had met in the capital in almost a year.
Government
spokesman Michael Makuei told The New Humanitarian the talks were “highly
successful” and insisted plans to meet the November deadline were still on
track. Deputy chairman for the opposition Henry Odwar, however, described the
meetings as “luke-warm”, and said key issues needed to be resolved before a
unity government could be formed.
“It’s
not clear they made any breakthroughs. Both leaders are positioning themselves
to blame the other party if they fail to form a government together in Juba,”
Alan Boswell, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, told TNH. “The
peace deal will almost certainly face a major crisis in November. The risk
remains substantial that the process breaks down.”
This
briefing explores the state of South Sudan’s fragile power-sharing agreement
ahead of the 12 November, when Machar is supposed to return and once again
serve as Kiir’s deputy.
Will a national army
be ready in time?
In
order for Machar to return – he has been living abroad since he was chased out
by Kiir’s allies amid fighting in 2016 – opposition and government armed forces
have to unite into one national army.
During
Kiir and Machar’s meeting last week, they agreed to fast-track the screening
and unification of the new force, which will consist of 83,000 troops – at
least half of those need to be in place by November. Both parties also agreed
on a VIP protection force of 3,000 soldiers, with an equal number of opposition
and government troops.
The troops have to be cantoned and trained
before uniting, and this process has been slow and under-funded. And, although
they are expected to form a single army in a matter of weeks, both sides are
still largely distrustful of the other.
On a visit to an opposition cantonment site
last month, TNH met soldiers who complained of hunger, health issues, and harassment
from government soldiers.
There
were roughly 1,000 opposition fighters at the site, which is supposed to hold
3,750 people. Two weeks’ worth of food, delivered more than a month ago, had
run out, the soldiers said.
“[The
government soldiers] want to know the number of weapons and ammunition we
have,” said Okeny George M Lam Onek, the division commander in charge of the
site. “If we’re partners to peace, why should it matter?”
Onek
also said government forces hadn’t been moving out of the towns and into the
barracks as stipulated by the agreement, making the opposition question their
commitment to peace.
What is the states
issue?
After
the failed 2015 peace deal, the government expanded the previously agreed upon
10 states to 32 – a move South Sudan experts say was intended to gerrymander
boundaries along ethnic lines.
The
opposition wants to return to 10 states, but the government is keen to continue
expanding the number.
As
part of the 2018 agreement, a commission was formed to settle the matter, but
it has been unable to come to a consensus.
After
Machar’s visit last week, both parties announced that a new committee would be
formed to investigate the issue.
“If
there is no consensus on the number of states by November, we in the
(opposition) will not be part of the formation of the government,” said Odwar.
What are the other
challenges?
Part
of the problem in moving the peace deal forward is a lack of funds.
While
Kiir pledged $100 million towards the process in May, a little over $10 million
has materialised.
The
international community, specifically Western countries, has abstained from
financially supporting the process. It’s unclear why, specifically, but there
have been numerous reports of alleged financial corruption.
Earlier
this month the African Union Commission gave tents, and China donated 1,500
tonnes of rice for soldiers in cantonment.
"I
want the peace deal to work,” Chris Trott, Britain’s ambassador to South Sudan,
told TNH. “I worry that a further extension would undermine people's
confidence, particularly the confidence of the South Sudanese who have been
most severely affected by this conflict. People see this deal as an opportunity
for peace and are desperately hoping that this peace will come.”
Who is still fighting?
While
violence has declined across the country, fighting has continued between
parties who failed to sign the peace deal.
Several
clashes have occurred in recent weeks, according to a September report by the
Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM)
– the body charged with documenting violations and overseeing the implementation
of the peace agreement. The report also noted that civilian buildings are
increasingly being occupied by both government and opposition soldiers.
In August, three outlying armed groups –
including Paul Malong, former military chief of staff and Thomas Cirillo,
former deputy chief of staff in South Sudan’s military – joined to form the
South Sudan Opposition Movements. Malong has been accused of directing the
fighting in Juba in 2016 that killed hundreds, and of controlling an ethnic
militia that numbers in the thousands.
In Juba, there has also been a sharp increase
in harassment by armed men at checkpoints at night. Several security reports
and local accounts detail men with guns detaining, robbing, beating, and
sexually assaulting civilians, including international aid workers. At least
five incidents have been reported since the end of August, although it’s
unclear who’s behind the attacks.
What next?
As
November approaches, the international community is calling on South Sudan’s
government to urgently increase the “pace and the quality of implementation”,
the EU said in a statement last week.
South
Sudan’s government and opposition say Kiir and Machar are open to further
meetings before November, but no dates have been confirmed.
Several
diplomats and analysts who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were
not authorised to speak on the record, say the deal will most likely collapse
if the government tries to implement the agreement without the opposition.
As
the peace deal limps on, South Sudan experts say even though violence has
waned, there has been little to no political progress toward a lasting peace.
“Peace
in South Sudan requires more than simply a reduction in violence. The peace
agreement has been drained of its essential meaning through a failure of
implementation of key elements,” said Klem Ryan, former coordinator for South
Sudan’s UN panel of experts. “This lack of reform makes a return to violence
almost inevitable.”
(Source:
the new Hu
